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Cakesmiths forecast coffee industry trends in Counterculture Report 2026
From seasonal bakes and global flavour influences to the rise of grab-and-go and late-afternoon trade, Cakesmiths’ newly released Counterculture 2026 report offers a timely snapshot of what’s shaping coffee shop counters right now and where opportunities lie for the year ahead
Drawing on first-hand data from their bakery teams, customer insights and wider hospitality trends, the report explores how operators can balance creativity with commercial reality in an increasingly cost-conscious market. While pressures around wages, ingredients and consumer spend remain, Cakesmiths point to continued growth in the UK coffee shop sector and a clear appetite for small, affordable moments of indulgence.
Among the key themes highlighted in the report are the power of seasonality and newness, with regularly refreshed menus shown to drive increased sales, and the continued rise of grab-and-go formats as commuting and early-morning footfall return. The report also notes that afternoon trade is becoming a critical growth window, as consumers swap big nights out for more informal coffee-led rituals.
Flavour trends for 2026 reflect a blend of comfort and curiosity. Familiar profiles such as caramel, honey and brown butter are given an elevated twist, while global influences - from matcha and pandan to ube and saffron - continue to move from niche to mainstream. Bold fruits, hybrid bakes and individually portioned treats also feature strongly, all designed to help counters stand out visually and perform commercially.
Cakesmiths will be exhibiting at HRC 2026 (Stand S1120), where visitors will be able to explore how these trends translate into ready-to-serve formats designed specifically for coffee shops and cafés.
Jo Farish, Event Manager for HRC, says: “Reports like Counterculture are invaluable for our audience because they connect big-picture trends with what operators actually need on their counters. Cakesmiths’ insight into flavour, format and consumer behaviour reflects exactly the kinds of conversations we see happening across HRC – practical ideas that help businesses stay relevant and profitable.”
The Counterculture 2026 report is designed as a practical roadmap rather than a trend forecast in isolation, offering operators ideas they can adapt to their own spaces, customers and communities.
Visitors to HRC 2026 can meet the Cakesmiths team on the show floor and discover how these insights are being brought to life in products built for consistency, quality and everyday service.
To view and download the full report, visit info.cakesmiths.com/counterculture
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