HRC have partnered with IGD to offer you two complimentary reports highlighting the market forecast for the UK food, drink, retail, and food-to-go sectors from 2023-2028.
UK market forecasts 2023-2028
New forecasts provide a complete picture of the UK market
The total UK food and drink market is predicted to be worth £315.2bn by 2028, experiencing a growth of 19% from 2023 (£265bn), according to a unique new forecast from IGD that presents a combined outlook covering eating in and eating out.
Merging IGD’s sought after UK retail and eating out forecasts, the new outlook provides a total picture of the challenges and opportunities across the whole food and drink market over the next five years, including a comparison and breakdown of both sectors.
Forecasted growth for the total market is driven largely by inflation, which IGD predicts peaked in March 2023. However, growth is down in real terms across the total landscape due to the impact the cost-of-living crisis is having on consumer spending, with the eating out sector more impacted as consumers switch to eating at home to save money.
In retail, consumers are also trading down to private label and discount options. By 2025 the market will begin to stabilise as inflation lowers and household disposable incomes rise.
UK food-to-go market forecast 2023-2028
IGD’s new forecast values food-to-go market at £22.9 bn in 2023
IGD’s latest food-to-go market outlook forecasts the value of the market and its five sectors to 2028. These forecasts are aligned with our eating out and retail channel forecasts , covering the food-to-go market specifically across the following five sectors:
- Coffee and drinks specialists
- Fast food specialists
- Food-to-go specialists
- Convenience stores, forecourts and other retailers
- Supermarkets and hypermarkets
The total value of the UK food-to-go market in 2023 is forecast to reach £22.9bn – a 6.2% increase from 2022. However, the main driver of this growth is inflation. Declining frequency, penetration and down-trading means that in real terms, the market will be down 3.3% vs 2022.
Real growth will return in 2024, but growth will be driven by inflation.
The total food-to-go market will return to real-term growth in 2024. However, this will only represent a small proportion of overall growth, as continued inflation and reduced disposable income will dampen demand. In 2025 and 2026, consumers will return to food-to-go more frequently and spend more as their budgets start to allow. This will see real growth rates increase and become the main contributor to overall market growth, rather than inflation.
With thanks to IGD
From our Insight Partner IGD. IGD are an organisation of two vital and interconnected communities, Commercial Insight and Social Impact. Together, they are working to drive change that makes a tangible difference for Society, Business and the Individual.
Grocery retailing globally is evolving in different ways and at different paces region-by-region. Through IGD's on-going research programme, they identify the key trends affecting the industry at a global and local level. In 2023 global retail will focus on the industry topics of efficiency, value, the reinvention of stores, sustainability, health, and technology. However, these trends will vary in importance around the world, which we will bring to life through our regional research.
Data underpins where and how the trends are affecting the growth outlook, supported by examples of where we are seeing them brought to life today. Together the qualitative and quantitative inputs help us consider what is coming next.
If you are wondering what could impact on your market, channel, or category in the future, start by asking:
- In a global world, are you benchmarking yourself against best-in-class, international companies?
- Where are you getting your global perspective and inspiration on these trends?
- Are there other considerations you hadn’t thought about?